A little less than a year ago, when the lockdown began and we were aware of the foreseeable damage to economic activity, there was a general fear of a sharp rise in the bank delinquency rate. The ECB highlighted its concern, perhaps because that role is implicit in its functions. And made consistent decisions, preventing entities from “spending” capital in the form of shareholder remuneration and urging them to cut costs and provide provisions.
The most pessimistic estimated that the default rate would start to rise sharply in 2020 and would reach a peak like that of the last crisis which, as we can see in the graph, was 13%. But the moderate theses predominated, which did not contemplate