November 17. That is the date that the team of David Roberts from the University of Kent (United Kingdom) considers that the first case of Covid-19 occurred.
Researchers have used an analysis system that has determined that the first case of Covid-19 arose between the beginning of October and mid-November 2019 in China, the most likely date of origin being November 17.
The findings are published in the journal “PLOS Pathogens.”
The truth is that the origins of the Covid-19 pandemic remain unclear. The first officially identified case occurred at early December 2019. However, the evidence suggests that the original case may have arisen many earlier.
To help clarify when the pandemic started, Roberts and his colleagues reused a mathematical model originally developed by conservation scientists to determine the extinction date of a species, based on recorded sightings of the species.
For this analysis, they reversed the method to determine the date Covid-19 is most likely to originate, based on when some of the earliest known cases occurred in 203 countries.
The analysis suggests that the first case occurred in China between the beginning of October and mid-November 2019. The first case probably emerged on November 17 and the disease spread to worldwide in January 2020.
These findings support the increasingly substantiated evidence that the pandemic arose earlier and was spread faster than officially accepted.
The analysis also identified the likely time when Covid-19 spread to the top five countries outside of China, as well as other continents.
For example, he estimates that the first case outside of China occurred in Japan on January 3, 2020; on Spain, January 12, 2020, and in North America, in EE.UU. the January 16, 2020.
The researchers note that their new method could be applied to understand better spread of other infectious diseases in the future.
Meanwhile, a better understanding of the origins of Covid-19 it could improve understanding of its continuing spread.
“Is new app within the field of epidemiology offers a new opportunity to understand the emergence and spread of diseases, since it only requires a small amount of data“Adds Roberts.